Decipher and Decode: Week 7

Decipher and Decode: Week 7

Taking the action in Week 7 and turning it into actionable information to weaponize against your league. Lets dive in.

Denver Broncos vs Cleveland Browns

Jerry Jeudy is coming back this week after suffering a gruesome high ankle sprain. I am here saying that trusting him this year is an exercise in futility. I thought of this excerpt from‘s article High-Ankle Sprains: ”High-ankle sprains, especially in running backs, wide receivers and tight ends have a tendency to be very challenging to return from. This injury really zaps the player’s power, and most players struggle when they return. Often they do not look like the same player until the following season.” Tim Patrick will no longer be relevant, but Sutton will continue to shine.

The Browns are this year’s Titanic team, starting off sailing towards glory only to find their iceberg in the season and sink. Jarvis Landry injured himself in-game, Kareem Hunt is on the IR, Baker and Odell Beckham Jr. together have a healthy shoulder, Chubb is banged up, and Donavon Peoples-Jones missed time with a groin injury this week. With Hunt missing time the allure of Nick Chubb is he is a locked-in Top-8 running back for the rest of the season. If you can make a trade to acquire him in your contending teams, now is the perfect time.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens

I don’t need to add anything to that. Tee Higgins is a buy low candidate right now. In the last two weeks, he had 21 targets, 10 catches for 106 yards, and a 62-percent snap share. His counterpart Tyler Boyd, in that same time frame, has 10 targets and 5 catches for 46 yards with a 67-percent snap share. Higgins, having missed two games, is a game away from surpassing Boyd’s seasonal target share. The buying window is getting closed after this week; they’re playing the Jets.

Rashod Bateman, two weeks into his NFL career, has 10 targets for 7 catches and 109 yards. He is also getting an average of 64-percent of the snaps. Bateman came third in targets and second in yards this week. This involvement, had it been the beginning of the season, would have folks foaming at the mouth. A player still only 18.9-percent rostered on ESPN is a must add to your bench,

Washington Football Team vs. Green Bay Packers

J.D. McKissic had 16 more snaps than Gibson this week. Including all games, Washington had a double digit loss McKissic and Gibson both had 95 snaps prior to today. Since the Kansas City game, McKissic has out snapped Gibson in those type of games and has outscored Gibson 28.6 to 10. However, it is important to note that Gibson missed time in the Kansas City game. McKissic is now a must start in games where the Football Team are projected to lose with ease.

Davante Adams and Allen Lazard are both going to be out this Thursday game. Meaning Randall Cobb, Amari Rodgers, Equanimeous St. Brown, and Robert Tonyan are going to get thrust into roles they had not previously seen. In the most dire of situations, Cobb is startable and Tonyan is a tight end streamer. Tonyan had a 14.28-percent of the target share this week and a 22.99-percent of the receiving yards. With Arizona expected to put up another high point output the Packers will need to throw early and often.

Atlanta Falcons vs. Miami Dolphins

Kyle Pitts has lifted off, reaching a 20-percent target share and accounting for 48.51-percent of the teams receiving yards. He is also seeing a large amount of his snaps lined up outside the formation.

Kyle Pitts is on track for a historical season, a feat completed by very few. However, Pitts is still not a consistent weekly play having a 10.65 to 14.01 median to average points per game. He won’t lose you any weeks, but managers shouldn’t expect his last two weeks performance to maintain. Also of note, Patterson saw a huge increase in snaps this week, reaching 73-percent.

Myles Gaskin tied his highest touch total of 19 touches this week. Ahmed and Brown followed up with 9 and 4 comparably. He continues as the most efficient and effective running back on the team, but his usage remains in question. A player I would not be confident starting week to week, but if this trend continues could regain his hold as a weekly starter.

New York Jets vs. New England Patriots

Elijah Moore scored his first NFL touchdown on one hell of an end-around. He also saw his highest target share since Week 3. Coming off the bye this usage trend could become a consistent thing. Carter remains an inefficient runner but saw his highest usage in the passing game yet. If this continues, which it may now that Wilson is out for close to a month. Carter could become a Najee Harris lite fantasy asset.

Brandon Bolden, who only has a rostership percentage of 5.5, saw heavy usage in the passing department, reaching a 17.07-percent target share. Much like James White, Bolden is going to be matchup dependent. Jakobi Meyers is a fantasy floor extraordinaire. However, when he gets his positive regression, it will be glorious.

Carolina Panthers vs. New York Giants

Robby Anderson should be in line for positive regression; however, he should only be started in the most dire of circumstances. D.J. Moore, though, has not hit the highs he had early in the season, but his target share this week of 25.64-percent is a dream. Moore has had one game below 70 receiving yards and a career target share of 27.76-percent. This is a great opportunity to acquire Moore as most owners are frustrated with the lack of elite production.

The Giants have lost their top three wideouts, finally allowing Evan Engram to shine this year. With Shepard coming back next week, this could open up a great opportunity to trade away Engram. In dynasty, I would look to trade Engram and third round pick for a second round pick.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tennessee Titans

Kansas is defunct. A defense unable to get any defensive stops puts the Chiefs in a very difficult offensive situation. Patrick Mahomes is having a rough start to the season, and all this offers is a unique opportunity to acquire Mahomes at a discount. There is minimal information to give you to support this. However, I trust Mahomes to figure this out, and so should you.

A.J. Brown had his best season of the year, with a 32.14-percent target share and 49.25-percent of the teams receiving yards. After his second week of great production, it seems the Titans remembered getting the ball to Brown leads to good results.

Detroit Lions vs. Los Angeles Rams

It is time I came clean. I was duped. I fell for dynasty brain and ignored Raymond in hopes for a St. Brown emergence. Raymond has been and will be the lead wide receiver for the Lions this year; unfortunately, weeks like these won’t be a consistent matter. D’Andre Swift is a monster, and Hockenson continues to have a strong target share. Any other players should not be started.

The Rams are good; there is very little to add here. Woods, Jefferson, and Higbee had big days. Tyler Higbee, this season has given a very solid floor in PPR leagues averaging 8.97 fantasy points per game. His name has lost the shine since he has yet to have a big game. This is a golden opportunity to acquire Higbee for those tight end needy teams.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Las Vegas Raiders

Miles Sanders is out for an undisclosed amount of time, though they say the injury is not severe. This offense is broken, and as a result, the offensive pieces are not shining as bright as they could. Jalen Hurts is suffering from predictable play calling and being unwilling to work through his read progressions. The one ray of light is Dallas Goedert seems to be sitting on the path of success into being a Top-8 tight end. He saw a 14.70-percent target share and 29.66-percent of the receiving yards. Devonta Smith has a season target share of 21.81-percent and 23.66-percent of the teams receiving yards. A player well worth acquiring at his current value.

Kenyan Drake is getting implemented with Gruden out, and Richard is also taking some of the shine away from Jacobs. With Waller out the Raiders carried on as always. Richard is worth a stash on deep benches after his usage this week. If Jacobs or Drake were to miss time, he is the player that would benefit. Richard totaled 8 opportunities and 7 touches, totaling for 25 yards.

Houston Texans vs. Arizona Cardinals

Nico Collins is healthy, and the last two weeks he has 11 targets, 6 receptions, and 72 yards. What is exciting is that he is getting thrust into a position with ample opportunity, and with Tyrod Taylor coming back, he should elevate the passing production. He already has the highest snaps after Cooks from the wide receivers. A player most have forgotten about but valuable speculative add.

Kyler Murray is injured, I don’t know the severity, but concern is present until there is more information. We saw his play decline last year dealing with a shoulder injury. An offense that spreads the ball around liberally may further be depleted if Murray is unable to retain his form. Coupling that with the arrival of Ertz, who got involved right away with a 17.85-percent target share, and 25.28-percent of the receiving yards. This week was an encouraging sight for Hopkins reaching a 32.14-percent target share. The health of Murray will be the guiding light on the fantasy success of the Arizona pass catchers.

Chicago Bears vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Khalil Herbert has played his way into production even with Montgomery back and healthy. I was wrong about this one so take this as my apology and pivot segment. Herbert, the last two weeks, has averaged 67.50-percent of rush attempts, 69.61-percent of the rushing yards, 1.99 yards per team attempt, and 4 targets a game. This young man has done everything you wanted him to do with his opportunity.

There is hardly anything to add here other than Godwin figures to see positive touchdown regression later in the season, and Tom Brady is elite. Jaden Darden, the rookie from North Texas, did see two opportunities. It may mean little, but they want to start getting him reps when it is applicable.

Indianapolis Colts vs. San Francisco 49ers

Zach Pascal is still getting the opportunity just has yet to turn that into production. Having amassed a 23.07-percent target share but only managing 9.3-percent of the receiving yards. With Hilton coming back sooner than later, Pascal’s value continues to plummet. His upside is limited by this offense and Pittman making him a prime waiver wire candidate.

In a surprise turn of events, JaMycal Hasty was the receiving back for the 49ers against the Colts. Registering a 22.22-percent target share his first week back gives hope for his fantasy value moving forward. The results were less than desirable, most of this being chalked up to the game conditions. His opportunity is leverageable. The 49ers struggles this year opens up the door for Hasty being a matchup dependent fantasy starter.

New Orleans Saints vs. Seattle Seahawks

I was at this game. I believe this is my first time I paid a lot of attention to the Saints offensively. I wish I never had. This was the first time I had seen a football spinning horizontally end to end and surpassing 30 yards. The one light I did notice is the slow involvement of Adam Trautman. Having now far surpassed Juwan Johnson and being implemented into the offense. His target average the last two weeks are not stunning, only managing 2.5 targets a game. The encouraging thing for me is that he is getting worked into the offense more and more, a player worth a stash on deep rosters.

Geno Smith just isn’t it, and this offense is doing him no favors either. Lockett and Metcalf will be fine once Wilson is back, but Lockett is not startable until then. Rashaad Penny got his first action of the year and did nothing with it. Not exactly what I wanted to see, given the opportunity ahead for him. Being it is his first game back, I am still holding him, but his spot on my bench is far from secure. Penny is worth a speculative add on your roster with Carson looking to be out for possibly the season. Pete Carroll loves explosive plays and Penny has had a knack for those in his short career.

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