Decipher and Decode – Week 6

Decipher and Decode – Week 6

Constantly refining ways to get you this information is something I am striving for. That being said, basic trends are established. Using weekly and seasonal metrics I will do my best to give you the pertinent information to help push your teams over the edge.

This link will take you to my google NFL spreadsheet, where I have the relevant player’s metrics on every team updated usually on Tuesday. Since the overall team breakdown will be discontinuing I wanted to still allow you access to the information.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Quez Watkins has been trending up the last three weeks; 72.33-percent target share, 13.51-percent target share, 19.14-percent of the receiving yards, and 1.12 yards per team pass attempt. With Ertz leaving to the Cardinals, the vacated targets will go to those most talented. Quez’s recent rise makes him a popular flier on the year. Dallas Goedert has a 9.09-percent target share, and this is after missing a game; he is now a locked-in Top-8 tight end. Jalen Hurts is currently occupying 43.08-percent of the team rushes, buoying his fantasy value for the time being.

Antonio Brown, having played five games, has the highest target share on the team with a 19.53-percent target share. This offense is running as efficiently as any in the league with all three above 1 yard per team pass attempt. This is unlikely to change in the future, making all three players worthwhile buy high candidates.

Miami Dolphins vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Tua Tagovailoa had a great return from injury, throwing for over 300 yards, completing 70.21-percent of his passes for a quarterback rating of 95.1. Jaylen Waddle benefited from his return, accounting for a 27.65-percent target share and two passing touchdowns. Waddle has established himself as a possession wide receiver; his career ceiling will be dependent on a potential change with Tagovailoa at the helm. Mike Gesicki is back on track for a Top-8 tight end finish turning his 19.14-percent target share into 34.95-percent of the teams receiving yards. Gesicki may still be attainable and is worth reaching out to the team manager rostering him.

Marvin Jones Jr. is back to his usual ways, which is being the alpha on the offense. James Robinson is making another push to be a Top-12 running back, averaging 82.66-percent of the snap share the last three weeks. Laviska Shenault is of concern. Up until near the end of the third, Shenault had below five targets. Finishing with 24.39-percent of the targets is great; however, averaging 7.46 yards per target and only .91 yards per team pass attempt is concerning. As long as Shenault continues to be mismanaged he offers little upside in fantasy rosters. Taking offers for him is the prudent thing to do, hoping to capitalize from someone excited for his role and this week’s box score.

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Baltimore Ravens

A tough game to gather meaningful information from, but Joshua Kelley received 40-percent of the running back carries. He is a must roster on a deep bench.

Rashod Bateman had his rookie premier. In doing so, he led the team in most receiving metrics. Bateman had a 22.22-percent target share turning that into 17.36-percent of the receiving yards for 1.07 yards per team pass attempt. All four completions were for firsts down, showing his potential role in this offense, a high volume, and efficient receiver.

Minnesota Vikings vs. Carolina Panthers

K.J. Osborn and Tyler Conklin are within 5 targets of each other on the season. Both only have two fantasy relevant weeks apiece. Jefferson leads the team with a 24.58-percent target share and 21.28-percent of the total offensive yards. The studs stay studs with Thielen occasionally showing up to remind us what used to be.

With Marshall Jr. in concussion protocol, Anderson had a truly amazing and inefficient line; 11 targets for 11 yards. What was hoped to be a player able to capitalize on the departure of McCaffery seems destined to squander any potential opportunity. Since McCaffery has been out Anderson has accounted for 24.78-percent of the targets, only 14.21-percent of the receiving yards. The door is open for Marshall Jr. to make an impact if he is able to come back from concussion protocol.

Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears

Allen Lazard accounted for 21.73-percent of the targets, and the last three weeks has averaged 83.33-percent of the snaps. Not someone to run to the waiver wire and put a big bid on, but a player worthy of a low-dollar acquisition. Amari Rodgers was implemented into the game plan, which is something to monitor moving forward.

Mooney is the leader of the offense’s target share and receiving yards and is averaging 10.43 points per game. It is worth mentioning that Robinson was missed for a huge gain by Fields during the game. In the last two weeks, Fields attempts have increased 26.32-percent, this week reaching a carrier high of 27. The offense is growing into a potential fantasy start-able offense.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Detroit Lions

The game script stayed positive the entire game for the Bengals. Mixon accounted for 36.92-percent of the team’s opportunities. Higgins and Chase shared 20.68-percent of the targets, which leads to Boyd and J.J. Zachariason stated it best:

Chris Evans could have been dropped with Mixon back to full health but had a phenomenal touchdown catch and should be rostered in any point per reception scoring format.

Through a fantasy lens, watching this team is bad for your health as they are this year’s garbage time hero’s. Waiting till the fourth quarter to score all of their fantasy points. Some managers will be dissuaded by this, and if that is so, I highly recommend trying to acquire the key pieces in this offense; Swift and Hockenson. With Amon-Ra St. Brown failing to deliver on his 16.66-percent target share the wide receiver one position may stay a constant roulette motion.

Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts

Nico Collins, back from IR, slid into the second wide receiver position, unfortunately accounting for only a 13.95-percent target share. Someone worth monitoring as the season moves forward.

Jonathan Taylor, the last three weeks, has been averaging 27.03 PPR points per game. Reich’s usage is pitiful. Hopefully, this signals a change moving forward. This week was concerning for Pittman, given the appearance of Hilton and Campbell. Granted, both have reinjured themselves and are looking at missing time. Pittman losing the alpha focus makes me concerned for when the Colts add another wide receiver that can maintain their health.

Los Angeles Rams vs. New York Giants

The primary options of this offense are Henderson and Kupp, accounting for 46.32-percent of the total offensive yards. Woods, Higbee, and Jefferson, are simply secondary options that will maintain fantasy relevance in games that are more competitive than this one.

Kadarious Toney went out early but was the focal point in this offense prior. Shepard stepped into this offense without a hitch and looks like he is on pace for a career year. With Golladay, Toney, Slayton all out with injury, Pettis accounted for 21.56-percent of the targets. A volume play in PPR leagues but offers a bigger floor than anything else.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Washington Football Team

Last two weeks Hardman has accounted for 16.34-percent of the targets and 20.84-percent of the receiving yards. Hardman may actually become flex-worthy moving forward. Darrell Williams saw 25 opportunities this week, that is nine more opportunities that Clyde averaged this season.

With Gibson looking at missing potential time, J.D. McKissic becomes a high-end RB2. McKissic saw a 25.64-percent target share and 35.71-percent of the total offensive yards. Jaret Patterson is a priority add with Gibson expected to miss time.

Arizona Cardinals vs. Cleveland Browns

Another tough game to gather anything meaningful however the target share median for the wide receiver is 16.16-percent. Given that every wide receiver is within 2.5-percent means that these wideout’s ceilings are still locked into touchdown upside. Chase Edmonds has had two poor games; if anyone is panicking, now is the time to ‘swoop in’ to acquire him.

With Hunt on the IR, Chubb missing this Thursday’s game, and Baker in a sling this offense is just about a wrap on the season. Both Beckham Jr. and Peoples-Jones are trade away candidates on fantasy teams. Demetric Felton figures to be the focus for targets and Johnson should be the focus for carries.

Las Vegas vs. Denver Broncos

Henry Ruggs has had only one game below 50 yards this season and has 1.21 yards per team pass attempt. He is someone I am looking to acquire at cost. Waller has yet to hit his ceiling, but his floor is more valuable than most tight ends ceilings.

Sutton and Fant are the first and second reads of this offense. With Jeudy lurking in the shadows, people are getting a little shaky with what to do. You hold Sutton, and you trust the 24.20-percent target share and his 28.95-percent of the receiving yards. Jeudy will not be the same this year recovering from the high ankle sprain, making his fantasy value much less than it was for this year.

New England Patriots vs. Dallas Cowboys

Jakobi Meyers is courting the end zone. This week he made his ‘move’ and technically got into the end zone without scoring a touchdown. The future is bright for him, but this year he is going to be a flex option at best. That being said, he has a 24.41-percent target share this year and 22.81-percent of the receiving yards. He has staying power in this offense and is someone who can be acquired for at a good value.

CeeDee Lamb is all I really need to post here, but to go deeper, we saw a glimpse into this offensive potential if this defense continues to falter. Michael Gallup is coming back in the coming weeks, but Cedrick Wilson has made a big enough impact to stick around after Gallup presumably leaves for free agency. He is someone I would look to acquire at very little value; I am saying a rookie 3rd round pick type of value.

Seahawks Seattle vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

D.K. Metcalf is going to be fine. Unfortunately, that is the only fantasy player who will be. Metcalf is posting a 21.87-percent target share and 27.75-percent of the receiving yards. Geno Smith has found his primary target and won’t be budging from that any time soon.

The first game removed from JuJu being out for the season, and Pat Freiermuth stepped up in a big way. Posting a 17.5-percent target share, 25.32-percent of the receiving yards from that share. Freiermuth impressed in a big way, and with JuJu gone, Freiermuth will be benefitting from being a safety valve for Big Ben.

Buffalo Bills vs. Tennessee Titans

This offense is elite. Diggs, Sanders, and Beasley are all options any given week. Beasley is the most inconsistent but offers games like these which is his ceiling. Knox is out with a broken finger, so Beasley may have a mini resurrection.

A.J. Brown had his 2021 coming out party, logging a 31.03-percent target share which turned into 41.12-percent of the receiving yards. This all took place in the second half as well. Not sure what happened, but it seems the Titans found out that using Brown leads to wins. With Jones falling to injury, Rodgers is the player to step up and become a useable fantasy option.

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