Deciphering and Decoding: Week 4

Deciphering and Decoding: Week 4

We are a Thursday night game away from being ‘officially’ one-fourth through the season. These next few weeks are when things become paramount for your seasonal or dynasty leagues. Teams with poor records are going to begin to find a way to climb out of the hole they are in, and undefeated teams are going to begin making moves for the playoffs. The information gathered and presented here will give you a better idea of which players to target and which players to avoid in the future weeks.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Jacksonville Jaguars

  • Marvin Jones Jr.: 93-percent snap count, 23.13-percent target share, 25.20-percent of the receiving yards
  • Laviska Shenault: 75-percent snap count, 20.90-percent target share, 22.43-percent of the receiving yards
  • James Robinson: 95-percent snap count, 12.69-percent target share, 53.01-percent teams rushing yards and 24.46-percent of the total offensive yards

With Chark out for the year, Shenault saw a massive uptick in targets and receiving production. Not to be expected every single week with Jones Jr. having a down week, but the condensed targets will favor both Shenault and Jones Jr. Robinson saw a season-high snap count after Hyde was a scratch from the game, showing glimpses of last year this week. It is unlikely that Hyde misses extended time, and now maybe the opportune time to trade Robinson away for a more stable player. Shenault is someone I am willing to trade for at current value, especially since Chark is a free agent next year, potentially letting Shenault keep his growing role.

Cincinnati Bengals

  • Joe Mixon: 69-percent snap count, 90.05-percent of the rushing share, 27.68-percent of the total offensive yards and 1.85 yards per team attempt
  • Ja’Marr Chase: 79-percent snap count, 23.81-percent target share, 30.06-percent of the receiving yards and 21.38-percent of the total offensive yards
  • Tyler Boyd: 62-percent snap count, 28.57-percent target share, 26.21-percent of the receiving yards and 1.25 yards per team pass attempt

With Higgins missing another game, the target share disparity grew, the first two weeks, it was much tighter grouped, and I expect that to be the norm as long as all three are healthy. Also, this week was the first week Chase didn’t score a touchdown, and he still managed to have double-digit fantasy points. Joe Mixon has a ‘low-grade ankle sprain,’ which puts him day today. If he misses time, Perine figures to get the carries while Chris Evans would get the receiving work. With Higgins missing two weeks, he is the perfect trade target if the manager has a losing record in a seasonal league.

Washington Football Team vs. Atlanta Falcons

Washington Football Team

  • Antonio Gibson: 55-percent snap share, 60.96-percent of the rushing yards, 25.94-percent of the total offensive yards and 1.61 yards per team attempt
  • Terry McLaurin: 97-percent snap share, 31.40-percent target share, 25.50-percent of the total offensive yards
  • J.D. McKissic: 40-percent snap share, 11.57-percent target share and 14.59-percent of the receiving yard

Curtis Samuel had his first action of the season, getting four targets and four receptions. With Logan Thomas sidelined with a hamstring injury, Ricky Seals-Jones saw an uptick in targets and looks to be the person filling in for that role. Samuels arrival is going to add a few small disruptions into the target shares, most likely siphoning from the running backs and a small amount of McLaurin’s targets.

Atlanta Falcons

  • Calvin Ridley: 96-percent snap share, 26.42-percent target share, 25.76-percent of the receiving yards, 19.07-percent of the total offensive yards and 13-percent of the passing touchdowns
  • Kyle Pitts: 72-percent snap share, 16.35-percent target share, 19.09-percent of the receiving yards, 0-percent passing touchdowns
  • Cordarrelle Patterson: 30-percent snap share, 13.84-percent target share, 26.48-percent of the total offensive yards, 55.56-percent of the total touchdowns
  • Mike Davis: 67-percent snap share, 11.95-percent target share, 52.13-percent rush share, 39.48-percent of the rushing yards, 16.23-percent of the total offensive yards

Patterson broke fantasy football last weekend on an extremely limited snap share. Most of his success can be explained by his huge touchdown rate and his total offensive yards. With all things fantasy, regression is something to be mindful of. Patterson has two routes to go right now, see an uptick in snaps (shooting for 45-55-percent) or maintain the current snap share and fall victim to production regression. This is a pivotal week for Patterson; if you are a team heading to the playoffs, I am holding, but if you are not, I was able to trade him for a 2022 2nd round pick in a 12 team superflex dynasty. Mike Davis is starting to lose carries to Gallman, simply progressing along the route of losing his starting role. Ridley and Pitts have been doing well just have yet to have the touchdown boost, which figures to come once Patterson cools off.

Houston Texans vs. Buffalo Bills

Houston Texans

  • Brandin Cooks: 87-percent snap share, 36.79-percent target share, 47.14-percent of the receiving yards, 33.85-percent of the total offensive yards
  • David Johnson: 57-percent snap share, 9.43-percent target share, 20.18-percent of the rushing yards
  • Mark Ingram: 21-percent snap share, 51.51-percent of the rushing share, 15.29-percent of the total offensive yards

Much like each week, Ingram will gain more attention if they have a closer game, but when they get out of hand, Johnson is the player most utilized. Phillip Lindsay is no longer a bench stash failing to register one target and only four carries.

Buffalo Bills

  • Stefon Diggs: 74-percent snap share, 27.33-percent target share, 28.67-percent of the receiving yards, 18.54-percent of the total offensive yards and 1.10 yards per team pass attempt
  • Emmanuel Sanders: 71-percent snap share, 17.33-percent target share and 25.19-percent of the receiving yards
  • Cole Beasley: 50-percent snap share, 21.33-percent target share, 19.74-percent of the receiving yards
  • Dawson Knox: 81-percent snap share, 13.33-percent target share, 13.53-percent of the receiving yards and 44.44-percent of the passing touchdowns
  • Zach Moss: 56-percent snap share, 25.30-percent of the rushing yards and 20-percent of the total team touchdowns
  • Devin Singletary: 44-percent snap share, 44.58-percent of the rushing yards, 17.20-percent of the total offensive production

Beasley saw a reduction in snaps and targets last week, with Sanders seeing an uptick in both categories. Knox is trending towards the new hot name for tight ends though his target share and receiving yards are not something that elicits a lot of hope. Moss and Singletary had very similar days, with Moss finding the end zone again. Singletary is still riding his hot week 1 performance but has declined severely since then.

Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears

Detroit Lions

  • D’Andre Swift: 73-percent snap share, 18.35-percent target share, 22.43-percent of the total offensive yards and 1.34 yards per team attempt
  • T.J. Hockenson: 82-percent snap share, 18.99-percent target share, 19.55-percent of the receiving yards
  • Jamaal Williams: 30-percent snap share, 45.95-percent of the rushing yards, 18.58-percent of the total offensive yards
  • Khalif Raymond: 75-percent snap share, 13.92-percent target share, 16.55-percent of the receiving yards
  • Quintez Cephus: 87-percent snap share, 12.03-percent target share, 10.27-percent of the receiving yards

While Swift had a ‘poor performance, he is on the precipice of a big year, and his numbers support it. Hockenson while having a few unfortunate weeks still leads the team in targets and receiving yards. Raymond has officially been crowned the wide receiver to own in Detroit but that is an honor with minimal value. Raymond is better reserved for deep bench teams. Cephus is going to have big yard weeks but his opporunity is even less appealing than Raymonds. It is worth notice that Amon-Ra St. Brown finally showed a glimpse of what I had envisioned for him this year taking eight targets for 6 receptions and 70 yards. A name to monitor if the trend continues.

Chicago Bears

  • Darnell Mooney: 71-percent snap share, 26-percent target share, 36.95-percent of the receiving yards and 21.36-percent of the total offensive yards
  • Allen Robinson: 69-percent snap share, 24-percent target share, 24.47-percent of the receiving yards, 13.55-percent of the total offensive yards

I am truly baffled by Robinson. He has a healthy target share and ratio of target to yard percentage. Yet he has a minimal amount of the teams offensive yards. I believe Robinson will return to a similar form of past years but Mooney has now quietly became the lead receiver. Montgomery is looking to miss four to five weeks giving Damien Williams the lead role in Chicago. Khalil Herbert is a name to know on very deep benches.

Carolina Panthers vs. Dallas Cowboys

Carolina Panthers

  • D.J. Moore: 84-percent snap share, 38.39-percent target share, 33.47-percent of the receiving yards, 25.76-percent of the total offensive yards, 1.82 yards per team pass attempt
  • Robby Anderson: 84-percent snap share, 19.64-percent target share, 12.53-percent of the receiving yards
  • Terrace Marshall Jr: 71-percent snap share, 15.18-percent target share, 7.82-percent of the receiving yards

With CMC out Robby Anderson returned to last year’s form, doubling his season targets and receptions in just one week. Notably, as well though Marshall Jr. did not manage a big target share this week, he did have an uptick in his snaps, likely due to the game script. Chuba did okay, but his lack of targets with this game script minimizes his upside greatly.

Dallas Cowboys

  • Ezekiel Elliott: 75-percent snap share, 39.52-percent of the rushing yards, 18.22-percent of the total offensive yards, 1.24 yards per team attempt
  • CeeDee Lamb: 80-percent snap share, 24.43-percent target share, 24.77-percent of the receiving yards, 15.96-percent of the total offensive yards
  • Amari Cooper: 48-percent snap share, 22.14-percent target share, 24.20-percent of the receivng yards
  • Tony Pollard: 30-percent snap share, 37.71-percent of the rushing yards, 18.22-percent of the total offensive yards, 1.24 yards per team attempt
  • Dalton Schultz: 79-percent snap share, 17.56-percent target share, 18.67-percent of the receiving yards, 30-percent of the passing touchdowns

Dallas’s defense is good enough to minimize shootouts with most teams which will end up limiting the receiving weapons ceilings. Luckily, Lamb and Cooper have high target shares making them still a Top-24 lock at the end of the season. Elliott is sneakily on track to be a Top-3 running back at the end of the season, mainly on the back of the defense, keeping the offense in positive game scripts.

Indianapolis Colts vs. Miami Dolphins

Indianapolis Colts

  • Jonathan Taylor: 51-percent snap share, 61.16-percent of the rushing yards, 10.14-percent target share and 25.48-percent of the total offensive yards
  • Nyhiem Hines: 31-percent snap share, 13.04-percent target share, 13.93-percent of the total offensive yards
  • Michael Pittman: 86-percent snap share, 26.09-percent target share, 20.39-percent of the receiving yards and 20.39-percent of the total offensive yards
  • Zach Pascal: 82-percent snap share, 16.67-percent target share, 16.51-percent of the receiving yards and 60-percent of the passing touchdowns

Jonathan Taylor has the numbers to be a Top-12 running back. His usage this week in the win is what would elevate him into the Top-12 at the end of the year. The issue is the usage when the Colts are losing, which from the looks of things, maybe more consistent than them winning. When Hilton comes back from the IR, Pascal seems to be the wide receiver that has the most to lose.

Miami Dolphins

  • Jaylen Waddle: 79-percent snap share, 20.55-percent target share, 25.06-percent of the receiving yards, 18-percent of the total offensive yards
  • Mike Gesicki: 69-percent snap share, 18.49-percent target share, 23.06-percent of the receiving yards, 33-percent of the passing touchdowns
  • Davante Parker: 90-percent snap share, 21.92-percent target share, 30.33-percent of the receiving yards, 21.78-percent of the of total offensive yards

The running back room is a bloody mess. Gaskins saw an unceremonious drop in snaps while Malcolm Brown saw 67-percent of the snaps and averaged 2.9 yards per carry. They are all stay-aways for me. Waddle started out the first drive with three targets, three receptions, and thirty-three yards and finished with that same line. Parker is still the alpha, but this offense is hard to lean on until we see what Tua can do with it.

Cleveland Browns vs. Minnesota Vikings

Cleveland Browns

  • Odell Beckaham Jr.: 79-percent snap share, 14.55-percent target share
  • Nick Chubb: 47-percent snap share, 51.13-percent of the rushing yards, 23.62-percent of the total offensive yards
  • Kareem Hunt: 53-percent snap share, 13.64-percent target share, 25.26-percent of the total offensive yards, 1.66 yards per team attempt

OBJ is tied for the highest target share of the receivers after just two games. Had Baker been accurate last week, he would have even better numbers. He is a great seasonal trade target right now. Chubb and Hunt are both sitting as a Top-12 running backs and are currently carrying the team. Hunt is a good trade-away candidate for me as the Browns figure to be winning more than losing, and that mean Chubb will be given more opportunity.

Minnesota Vikings

  • Justin Jefferson: 88-percent snap share: 23.87-percent target share, 29.86-percent of the receiving yards and 21.38-percent of the total offensive yards
  • Adam Thielen: 99-percent snap share: 21.94-percent target share, 20.05-percent of the receiving yards, 44-percent of the passing touchdowns
  • Dalvin Cook: [injured] 49-percent snap share: 50.33-percent of the rushing yards, 18.72-percent of the total offensive yards, 1.13 yards per team attempt

Dalvin Cook missed week 3 and didn’t play all of week 4 yet owns the metrics for running backs. Jefferson is and has been the lead wide receiver, but Thielen will remain a thorn as long as he is the touchdown wizard. Tyler Conklin is the notable mention here as it looks like Conklin and Osborn will trade of weeks of being useable.

New York Giants vs. New Orleans Saints

New York Giants

  • Kenny Golladay: 92-percent snap share, 18.18-percent target share, 23.82-percent of the receiving yards 17.74-percent of the total offensive yards
  • Saquon Barkley: 89-percent snap share, 45.81-percent of the rushing yards, 13.29-percent of the target share, 19.87-percent of the total offensive yards

In the fun fact of the week, Daniel Jones has two more rushing yards than Saquon Barkley. Now, this is not a slight to Barkley but a testament to Jones, who clearly holds the Konami code in his hands. With Shepard and Slayton out, Golladay stepped up big time as the lead wide receiver. Kadarious Toney filled the rest of the void quite well, gaining 78 yards off of 9 targets. It is unlikely he keeps his role as Shepard was having a career year, but he is making a push for more playing time. Engram remains hit or miss and overall rather disappointing.

New Orleans Saints

  • Alvin Kamara: 87-percent snap share, 16.09-percent target share, 58.65-percent of the rushing yards, 31.06-percent of the total offensive yards
  • Marquesz Callaway: 82-percent snap share, 14.94-percent target share, 21.92-percent of the receiving yards, 11.85-percent of the total offensive yards
  • Deonte Harris: 49-percent snap share, 17.24-percent target share, 26.24-percent of the receiving yards, 14.27-percent of the total offensive yards
  • Juwan Johnson: 21-percent snap share, 11.49-percent target share, 38-percent of the passing touchdowns

The target shares are still too low of a sample size to make any declarative statements on. Early findings suggest to me that Harris may have a bigger role than anticipated, and when Thomas comes back, Callaway or Harris will be delegated. Based on the numbers, Callaway is performing worse than Harris, making him a risky player to keep on the roster. With the Saints averaging only 21.75 pass attempts a game starting any of these options is an unstable upside play at best. As I am sure you are aware, this is the first time Kamara did not see a single target and had the highest carry total in his NFL career.

Tennessee Titans vs. New York Jets

Tennessee Titans

  • Derrick Henry: 59-percent snap count, 77.86-percent of the rush yards, 37.03-percent of the total offensive yards
  • Jeremy McNichols: 40-percent snap count, 14-percent target share, 12.73-percent of the receiving yards

This was an odd game with A.J. Brown and Julio Jones both out, and Rodgers, Reynolds, and Westbrook-Ikhine filled the role. What was notable was that McNichols had a huge part of the receiving production. Not much can be gathered from this season long-wise, but McNichol’s role as a pass-catcher is solidified.

New York Jets

  • Corey Davis: 82-percent snap share, 21.32-percent target share, 27.78-percent of the receiving yards and 20.88-percent of the total offensive yards
  • Jameson Crowder: 62-percent snap share, (this week) 26.47-percent target share, 20.53-percent of the receiving yards, 16.80-percent of the total offensive yards
  • Michael Carter: 51-percent snap share, 41.50-percent of the rush yards, 13.89-percent of the total offensive yards and 20-percent of the teams touchdowns

With Elijah Moore sidelined with a concussion, Crowder stepped into his role and did what he always does; produce. Davis and Crowder being added into this offense could give Wilson the much-needed reliability to succeed this year. Carter is now the lead back, but it still accounts for very little fantasy-wise. Elijah Moore has high upside, but with Crowder reintegrated, look to Week 5 and see how they both fair when playing their usual snap counts.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Kansas City Chiefs

  • Tyreek Hill: 81-percent snap share, 28.36-percent target share, 37.19-percent of the receiving yards, 27.77-percent of the total offensive yards
  • Travis Kelce: 89-percent snap share, 23.88-percent target share, 25.12-percent of the receiving yards, 17.60-percent of the total offensive yards
  • Clyde Edwards-Helaire: 52-percent snap share, 55.85-percent of the rush yards, 5.97-percent target share, 19.61-percent of the total offensive yards

The offense stays condensed, the Eagles were unable to bottle up Hill, but it came at the expense of Kelce throwing up a rare dud week. With Mahomes throwing up five touchdowns, it is odd that Kelce was a non-factor.

Philadelphia Eagles

  • Devonta Smith: 92-percent snap share, 21.83-percent target share, 14.29-percent of the total offensive yards and 1.02 yards per team pass attempt
  • Dallas Goedert: 74-percent snap share, 11.27-percent target share, 16.11-percent of the receiving yards
  • Miles Sanders: 64-percent snap share, 34.35-percent of the rushing share, 16.52-percent of the total offensive yards
  • Zach Ertz: 50-percent snap share, 13.38-percent target share,
  • Kenneth Gainwell: 39-percent snap share, 12.68-percent target share, 20-percent of the total touchdowns

I kept Jalen Reagor off the list because, in a game where Hurts had 48 pass attempts, he had one attempt in garbage time. This came against one of the worst pass defenses. I am a noted Reagor truther, but this is the last straw, especially since Watkins saw a season-high 7 targets. Sanders is also in a bit of a trap. Gainwell has supplanted himself as a target monster. Sanders has two routes, get integrated as a two-down back or stay in his current purgatory. My hope is he gets integrated back into the rushing offense.

Arizona Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Rams

Arizona Cardinals

  • DeAndre Hopkins: 96-percent snap share, 18.66-percent target share, 17.67-percent of the receiving yards and 12.30-percent of the total offensive yards
  • Chase Edmonds: 67-percent snap share, 45.86-percent of the rushing yards, 16.42-percent target share, 21.60-percent of the total offensive yards.
  • AJ Green: 86-percent snap share, 18.66-percent target share, 19.48-percent of the receiving yards, 13.56-percent of the total offensive yards
  • Rondale Moore: 42-percent snap share, 13.43-percent target share, 16.58-percent of the receiving yards, 12.14-percent of the total offensive yards
  • Christian Kirk: 72-percent snap share, 13.43-percent target share, 19.17-percent of the receiving yards, 13.34-percent of the total offensive yards
  • James Conner: 42-percent snap share, 30.94-percent of the rushing yards, 25-percent of the total touchdowns

This is one of the most well-balanced offenses in the NFL right now. That is both a good and bad thing. For the NFL side, it is great, but for fantasy, it limits every player’s ceiling, excluding Chase Edmonds. Unless opportunity arises. ceilings are going to be met through touchdowns which is a very difficult thing to project week to week.

Los Angeles Rams

  • Cooper Kupp: 96-percent snap share, 34.33-percent target share, 26.73-percent of the total offensive yards, 1.83 yards per team pass attempt
  • Robert Woods: 96-percent snap share, 18.66-percent target share, 11.92-percent of the total offensive yards
  • Van Jefferson: 68-percent snap share, 13.43-percent target share, 14.18-percent of the total offensive yards
  • Darrell Henderson: 90-percent snap share, 56.99-percent of the rushing yards, 8.96-percent target share, 17.88-percent of the total offensive yards

Cooper Kupp had a ‘bad’ game and still managed 13 targets for 64 yards. That is what his floor looks like this year, and that is excellent. Henderson saw a huge snap share after missing last week, and a part of that is certainly due to the game script. McVay said Wednesday afternoon that he wants to get “Woods more involved.” Jefferson is also not going away anytime soon, a rough game but a consolidated group of producers.

Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers

Seattle Seahawks

  • Tyler Lockett: 86-percent snap share, 22.94-percent target share, 31.90-percent of the receiving yards and 22.62-percent of the total offensive yards
  • D.K. Metcalf: 82-percent snap share, 30.28-percent target share, 27.30-percent of the receiving yards and 19.36-percent of the total offensive yards
  • Chris Carson: 45-percent snap share, 54.21-percent of the rush yards 17.73-percent of the total offensive yards

Thursday is going to be a very telling game. In my opinion, Seattle got very lucky this week. After only gaining 149 yards through the air, it won’t be as easy against the Rams. The offense is not running properly. Usually, this means more running and less passing, given Pete Carroll’s history in these situations.

San Francisco 49ers

  • Deebo Samuel: 89-percent snap share, 30.66-percent target share, 32.55-percent of the total offensive yards
  • George Kittle: 92-percent snap share, 21.17-percent target share, 20.88-percent of the receiving yards

This game showed me a few things, Deebo is here to stay as long as he is healthy. Sermon has not done enough to take the job outright. Aiyuk is talented but lacks the opportunity. With Lance taking over the duties for the time being here is a nice breakdown by Jakob of what he saw by Lance. ‘insert jakob lance tweet’

Baltimore Ravens vs. Denver Broncos

Baltimore Ravens

  • Marquise Brown: 62-percent snap share, 22.58-percent target share, 30.27-percent of the receiving yards, 19.08-percent of the total offensive yards
  • Sammy Watkins: 73-percent snap share, 23.39-percent target share, 23.86-percent of the receiving yards, 14.81-percent of the total offensive yards
  • Latavius Murray: 62-percent snap share, 22.95-percent of the rush yards, 20-percent of the total touchdowns
  • Mark Andrews: 63-percent snap share, 20.16-percent target share, 23.49-percent of the receiving yards, 14.58-percent of the total offensive yards

Rashod Bateman coming back is going to be very fun and very hectic. Marquise Brown should continue his current pattern of production as long as Watkins or Bateman are there to draw coverage. This unquiet opportunity for the Ravens is that the run game is null and void, which could open up even more passing volume for Bateman’s return.

Denver Broncos

  • Courtland Sutton: 95-percent snap share, 15.50-percent target share, 20.90-percent of the receiving yards, 14.08-percent of the total offensive yards
  • Melvin Gordon: 49-percent snap share, 50.92-percent of the rushing yards, 8.33-percent target share, 22.45-percent of the total offensive yards
  • Javonte Williams: 51-percent snap share, 38.19-percent of the rushing yards, 6.82-percent target share, 15.82-percent of the total offensive yards
  • Tim Patrick: 92-percent snap share, 9.85-percent target share, 17.31-percent of the receiving yards
  • Noah Fant: 93-percent snap share, 12.88-percent target share, 10.95-percent of the receiving yards

This is a run-first offense. This is why the target share and receiving yard ratio is distorted. The offense is doing a good job cultivating explosive plays off the back of the running game. Unfortunately, with Bridgewater missing around half the game, we did not get a true indicator of how they pivot when they can’t lean on the run. Drew Lock is bad news for the starters this week and if Bridgewater cannot go, downgrading the receiving options is a must for your team.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Green Bay Packers

Pittsburgh Steelers

  • Juju Smith-Schuster: 95-percent snap share, 13.95-percent target share, 14.73-percent of the receiving yards
  • Diontae Johnson: 92-percent snap share, 17.05-percent target share, 17.60-percent of the receiving yards
  • Najee Harris: 80-percent snap share, 20.93-percent target share, 77.36-percent of the rush yards, 28.33-percent of the total offensive yards

Claypool was left off because he did not log a snap due to injury, but his number are still inflated from being the lone receiver for a game in a half. Harris is in a similar position with his receiving production. When Claypool is healthy, I expect those targets to dissipate back to the receiving room.

Green Bay Packers

  • Davante Adams: 88-percent snap share, 37.36-percent target share, 43.10-percent of the receiving yards, 32.32-percent of the total offensive yards
  • Randall Cobb: 46-percent snap share, 12.09-percent target share, 17.71-percent of the offensive yards, 13.39-percent of the total offensive yards
  • Aaron Jones: 62-percent snap share, 10.99-percent target share, 66.11-percent of the rush yards, 24.37-percent of the total offensive yards

Another condensed offense that is a fantasy superstar. With MVS on the injured reserve, Cobb stepped into his old role and produced as if he had never left. Cobb, if available, is someone that acquiring should be beneficial for your fantasy team.

New England Patriots vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

New England Patriots

  • Jakobi Meyers: 25.21-percent target share, 23.37-percent of the receiving yards, 18.48-percent of the total offensive yards
  • Damien Harris: 62.77-percent of the rush yards, 16.38-percent of the total offensive yards
  • Brandon Bolden: 6.17-percent target share
  • Nelson Agholor: 14.20-percent target share, 15.61-percent of the receiving yards

Meyers is the main piece of this offense that makes it run. He is without a touchdown in his career. However, everything else is there, and the touchdowns will follow. Harris is still a matchup dependent fantasy play but is dominating the run game. Bolden has a target share that is respectable and has only started one game. That number will grow.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

  • Mike Evans: 20.11-percent target share, 20.65-percent of the receiving yards, 17.02-percent of the total offensive yards
  • Chris Godwin: 16.30-percent target share, 21.83-percent of the receiving yards, 18.12-percent of the total offensive yards
  • Antonio Brown: 11.41-percent target share, 14.82-percent of the receiving yards,
  • Leonard Fournette: 10.33-percent target share, 63.67-percent of the receiving yard, 18.72-percent of the total offensive yards

The passing offense is going to be a high-volume passing offense. The target share for Godwin is odd, but most of it is reflected by the Sunday night game where he was not targeted highly. The yards are there for him so that the targets will stabilize. Fournette is the back to own and this week was the crowning of him the lead back.

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Las Vegas Raiders

  • Darren Wallers: 23.53-percent target share, 19.59-percent of the receiving yards, 15.92-percent of the total offensive yards
  • Hunter Renfrow: 17.65-percent target share, 17.80-percent of the receiving yards, 14.47-percent of the total offensive yards
  • Henry Ruggs III: 14.71-percent target share, 21.23-percent of the receiving yards, 17.78-percent of the total offensive yards

Josh Jacobs is back, but he had a lackluster performance against a strong defense in a negative game script, but seeing 5 targets is very encouraging. Waller has less involved than anticipated thus far through the year, and the blame rests upon Ruggs and Renfrow’s shoulders. The emergence of Ruggs and Renfrow acting as a mini-me version of Waller is impacting his overall ceiling. Though, he is still currently the TE2 on the season in PPR leagues. I have been wrong about Ruggs, the offense has done a tremendous job getting him involved in the offense, and his metrics show it. I have hope for Bryan Edwards, who was left off the list, but it is quickly fading as he is simply not seeing the target share to become a reliable fantasy weekly starter. The upside with Edwards is he is the highest snap count for the wide receivers.

Los Angeles Chargers

  • Keenan Allen: 88-percent snap share, 26.67-percent target share, 18.25-percent of the total offensive yards, 1.09 yards per team pass attempt
  • Mike Williams: 85-percent snap share, 21.21-percemt target share, 19.03-percent of the total offensive yards, 1.14 yards per team pass attempt
  • Austin Ekeler: 60-percent snap share, 12.12-percent target share, 65.81-percent of the rushing yards, 26.37-percent of the total offensive yards
  • Jared Cook: 52-percent snap share, 13.94-percent target share, 15.37-percent of the receiving yards, 11.26-percent of the total offensive yards

Mike Williams had a back-to-earth game after starting off hot for three weeks. The concern is not needed, but the floor for Williams is much less appealing than his counterpart’s floor in Allen. These games happen and panic should not begin to creep in unless a new trend of below 6 targets a game sets in. Austin Ekeler has the juice to be a league winner; if health is on his side this year, he is going to be on plenty of championship teams. Touchdowns will regress positively for Allen, who has lost out on the weekly sweepstakes this far into the season. Allen is uniquely positioned to be acquired at this point of the season, and I strongly suggest inquiring what it would take to trade for him in your leagues.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: