Exploiting Value Through KTC: TE Buys

Exploiting Value Through KTC: TE Buys

KeepTradeCut (KTC) is a free and fantastic tool for the dynasty gamer. It is a great way to gauge how the dynasty hive mind values different players and picks. This website essentially provides “market value” for all kinds of assets, using over 900,000 data points and counting. It is important to note, however, that the market is not always correct. The best part of this crowdsourcing tool is that it allows the savvy dynasty manager to recognize and exploit weaknesses in the market.

Checkout the other editions in the series here:

An often-overlooked and undervalued position, it isn’t hard to accumulate shares of promising TEs at a reasonable price. Acquiring TEs before they breakout can be much easier than doing the same with other positions and equally profitable (especially in TE premium leagues). Because of how scarce the TE position is, finding diamonds in the rough will give you great leverage over your opponents for years to come. The TEs in this article are great buy candidates, and you should trade for them with confidence, knowing that they’ll accumulate value over the course of the next year. 


Gerald Everett 

Current KTC Value: 2,212

Current Positional Ranking: TE20

Sample Trades using KTC’s trade calculator:

Despite ranking fifth on his own team in target share, Everett still finished as a top 24 tight end last year. Additionally, he’ll enjoy a significant quarterback upgrade from Jared Goff to Russell Wilson. After signing a one-year, 6 million dollar contract and being mentioned by Pete Caroll as a breakout candidate, Everett is the heavy favorite to establish himself as the clear number three option in the Seattle passing attack. 

“This is, I think, the fanciest, sweetest-looking receiver/tight end mix that we’ve had,” Caroll said. “He’s like a wide receiver. He’s got terrific after-the-catch run ability, really aggressive, and he’s a good blocker, too. And he knows the system inside and out. What Gerald brings us is a real threat in the throwing game.” 

Caroll is spot on about Everett’s YAC ability, as Everett averaged 3.6 yards after the catch per reception last year. For context, Travis Kelce and Darren Waller averaged 3.8 yards after the catch per reception in 2020. 

According to playerprofiler, Everett also ranked 5th in true catch rate (total receptions divided by catchable targets) and 6th in target separation last year. Additionally, Everett possesses a 94th percentile burst score and an 87th percentile catch radius- impressive physical tools. Everett is a great buy, as you can get him for pennies on the dollar, and he has surefire top 10 potential next year. 

Adam Trautman

Current KTC Value: 3,144

Current Positional Ranking: TE12

Sample Trades using KTC’s trade calculator:

The cat’s at least halfway out of the bag with Adam Trautman, as his value has gone from the TE23 to the TE12 over the last six months on KTC. While he’s nowhere near the bargain he was earlier this offseason, he’s still not prohibitively expensive, and his value should still appreciate over the next year or two. 

Sean Payton clearly likes Trautman, as the Saints traded all of their day-three draft picks to move up into the third round to select Trautman in 2020. Further, they let Jared Cook walk this offseason, opening the door for Trautman to step in as the starting TE. Although he obviously had a very small sample size last year as a rookie, he was very promising with the limited opportunity. 

Trautman caught 15 of his 16 targets while averaging 11.4 yards per reception and 7.8 yards after the catch per reception. Trautman flashed some dynamic YAC ability during weeks 9 (against Tampa Bay) and 16 (against Minnesota), accumulating 56 yards after the catch on only five receptions during those two games. Trautman also showed he can be a significant red-zone weapon in his last two years of college, scoring 23 touchdowns over the course of his junior and senior seasons.

Expect Trautman to easily ascend into the top 12 TE range this year, with the potential for more. Trading for him now before he shows what he can do as a starting TE is a wise move that will pay dividends later. 

Pat Freiermuth 

Current KTC Value: 3,016

Current Positional Ranking: TE15

Sample Trades using KTC’s trade calculator:

Largely because of Kyle Pitts, Pat Freiermuth has been incredibly slept-on this offseason. The 19th TE taken off the board in dynasty startups, according to DLF ADP, people seem to be forgetting just how dominant Freiermuth was during 2020. 

While his season was unfortunately cut short due to injury, Freiermuth had 310 yards over four games, averaging over 77 yards per game. For context, over a full 12 game college schedule, he was on pace for 930 yards. Small sample extrapolation is never something to live and die by, but Freiermuth’s stock would’ve undeniably been a lot higher had he stayed healthy for his full junior season at Penn State. 

Although Freiermuth is unlikely to have a huge impact as a rookie due to insane target competition in Pittsburgh, it would be wise to inquire about him with impatient owners during the 2021 season. Eric Ebron and JuJu Smith-Schuster are both scheduled to be unrestricted free agents in 2022, potentially opening up both the starting TE job as well as a ton of vacated targets. 

Freiermuth displayed sure hands throughout his college career, with a 65% catch rate (as opposed to Kyle Pitts’ 66% catch rate). He also showed a knack for making things happen after the catch, utilizing a nasty stiff arm and rarely going down after first contact. Freiermuth also possesses an 81st percentile breakout age and a 77th percentile college dominator (both ranking ahead of Pitts), two indicators that bode well for his prospects at the next level. 

Freiermuth is a lot cheaper than he will be this time next year, when people realize he’s slated for a significant role in the Steelers offense in 2022, to go along with a tremendous talent profile. 

Honorable Mentions:

  • David Njoku

    • Current KTC Value: 1,125

    • Current Positional Ranking: TE34

  • Brevin Jordan

    • Current KTC Value: 1,337 

    • Current Positional Ranking: TE29

  • Hunter Long

    • Current KTC Value: 

    • Current Positional Ranking: TE33

Out of the three honorable mentions, Brevin Jordan has the best chance to make a significant impact in 2021 due to the lack of target competition and Tyrod Taylor’s propensity to target the TE position. But these players aren’t a good value because of how they project in 2021. Rather, each of these TEs are incredibly cheap dynasty stashes that have the potential to become impact players down the line. 

In Miami, Mike Gesicki is due to become a free agent in 2022. If the Dolphins choose not to re-sign him, Hunter Long could step into the starting TE role as soon as next year. While not a stand-out athlete, Long had 57 receptions for 685 yards and five touchdowns in his 2020 season at Boston College. The Dolphins also selected him in the third round of the NFL Draft, a significant investment. 

Brevin Jordan was one of the better TE’s in college football in 2020 and was a consensus top-3 TE amongst the dynasty community entering the NFL Draft. While his early fifth-round draft capital was a major disappointment, Jordan has shown the ability to be a capable down-the-field target, as he averaged 15 yards per reception in 2020. He’ll also be only 21 years old throughout the duration of the 2021 NFL season. I don’t expect him to light the world on fire as a rookie, but he could become a solid fantasy TE with time to develop. 

Last but not least, the dynasty hive mind seems to have all but forgotten about David Njoku’s existence. After a promising second-year season in which he posted over 600 receiving yards, Njoku has largely disappointed in years three and four. The silver lining is that his catch % rose to 66% in 2020, a marked improvement over his career average of 59%. Njoku also had a very nice performance in the Browns playoff game against the Chiefs, outplaying fellow TE Austin Hooper and catching four balls for 59 yards. Considering the fact that Njoku is also going to be only 25 years old for the 2021 season and is a free agent in 2022, he is a nice stash that is available for pennies on the dollar. 

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