Exploiting Value Through KTC: RB Sells

Exploiting Value Through KTC: RB Sells

KeepTradeCut (KTC) is a free and fantastic tool for the dynasty gamer. It is a great way to gauge how the dynasty hive mind values different players and picks. This website essentially provides “market value” for all kinds of assets, using over 900,000 data points and counting. It is important to note, however, that the market is not always correct. The best part of this crowdsourcing tool is that it allows the savvy dynasty manager to recognize and exploit weaknesses in the market.

Checkout the other editions in the series here:

One of the most important parts of having dynasty success is knowing when to sell players before their value falls off a cliff. This is particularly true when it comes to the position with the shortest lifespan

The players in this article still hold significant value; however, it is ideal that you look to sell them sometime during the 2021 season for an optimal return. Place them on the block after a big game, and you’ll be glad you did this time next year. 


Derrick Henry

Current KTC Value: 6179

Current Positional Ranking: RB11

Sample Trades using KTC’s trade calculator:

Of all the running backs on this list, Henry’s value may rise the most after we enter the regular season. Henry is an alluring asset for win-now teams, as he’s averaged 20.2 fantasy points per game the last two years. Because Henry had such light usage during his first two seasons in the league (110 carries as a rookie and 176 in year 2), it wouldn’t be shocking to see him have another dominant season or two before the wheels begin to fall off. 

However, using a redraft mindset in dynasty can be extremely detrimental to your long-term profitability. Henry had enormous usage from 2019-2020, as he averaged 359 touches per year during this time frame. Assuming he sees similar volume this year, he will have accumulated over 1,000 touches from 2019 through 2021. 

Look, I get it. Henry’s not a normal running back. He’s a 6’3” 247-pound behemoth that eats DB’s for breakfast. Despite his physically dominant stature, anyone can suffer a non-contact, fluke injury. And if Henry were to suffer a severe injury in his age 27 season, he’d be facing an uphill battle trying to regain his form as a 28-year-old running back. His dynasty value would also almost surely plummet. 

Even if he stays healthy for all 17 games next season, it’s only a matter of time until Henry either gets injured or slows down due to the insane volume. 

This is precisely why you should capitalize on Henry’s dominant performances next season and sell high after a big game. Receiving a young running back like Swift, CEH, or Dobbins in exchange for Henry is a move that you will be thankful you made a year from now. 

Chris Carson

Current KTC Value: 4500

Current Positional Ranking: RB24

Sample Trades using KTC’s trade calculator:

Like Henry, Chris Carson is another prime example of a depreciating dynasty asset. Carson’s recent two-year, $10,425,000 contract extension (as well as a recent shirtless Instagram picture) have opened a brief sell window, where you’ll likely be able to find a manager in your league that is eagerly pushing for a championship at the expense of their future. 

This leads me to my next point. Most managers with semi-competitive rosters play dynasty with the end goal of doing whatever it takes to win a championship that year. However, the end goal of playing dynasty fantasy football should be to build a dynasty. This isn’t done by selling out and acquiring aging redraft players so you can win a championship and then decline for years. It is done by building a nucleus of young players and future draft capital (appreciating assets) and selling depreciating assets to other managers at the right time. 

Not only will Chris Carson be entering his age 27 season next year, but he’s also suffered a plethora of significant injuries over the last few years. This includes an ankle fracture in 2017, a hip fracture in 2019, and a mid-foot sprain in 2020. 

One of Carson’s greatest strengths on the football field is that he plays with reckless abandon. Rather than avoiding contact, Carson prefers to seek it out and run through defenders whenever possible. This is a double-edged sword. He is an extremely exciting player to watch and very productive when he’s on the football field. But his style of play is also not conducive to longevity. 

The Seahawks, and more specifically, Pete Carroll, have been very vocal about their desire to run the ball more frequently in 2021. This will likely lead to them riding Carson until the wheels fall off. If he can stay healthy, Carson will have a strong 2021 with plenty of big games. If you’re smart, you’ll avoid the temptation of holding onto him and sell him to a short-sighted manager in your league. Fetching an asset like a future first or Elijah Moore shouldn’t be difficult during the season. Pull the trigger. 

Joe Mixon

Current KTC Value: 5,907

Current Positional Ranking: RB14

Sample Trades using KTC’s trade calculator:

The way that Joe Mixon has held value this off-season, despite the Bengals ignoring their desperate need at offensive-line, is quite perplexing. The Bengal’s offensive line had a 59.2 run-blocking efficiency grade when Mixon ran the ball last year, which ranked in the bottom three of the NFL. Electing to draft Burrow’s college buddy instead of shoring up the offensive line is bad news for Mixon. 

60% of Mixon’s carries last year were against light defensive fronts (six or fewer defenders in the box). Even during these instances, he averaged only 3.7 yards per carry. Mixon was unable to overcome the pathetic offensive line play in 2020, as he created an average of 1 yard after the first evaded tackler (42nd in the NFL amongst ball carriers). In the six games that he played last year, Mixon also only had three goal-line carries (0.5 per game), which ranked 46th amongst 2020 ball carriers. 

Considering these facts, it seems very unlikely that Mixon will enjoy even average efficiency in 2021. Because Mixon is valued ahead of other running backs, who’ve proven they can be elite fantasy assets (like Ezekiel Elliott, Aaron Jones, and Austin Ekeler), Mixon is a player that should be sold during the offseason, before the season starts and managers are given a reminder of his terrible situation. 

Pivoting to another running back with a better situation or acquiring an elite asset like Darren Waller should be a no-brainer.

Honorable Mentions:

  • Ezekiel Elliott 

    • Current KTC Value: 5,882

    • Current Positional Ranking: RB15

  • Aaron Jones

    • Current KTC Value: 5,765

    • Current Positional Ranking: RB17

  • Dalvin Cook

    • Current KTC Value: 7,288

    • Current Positional Ranking: RB4

Once the 2021 season begins, Zeke and Cook will be 26 years old, and Jones will be almost 27. All three of these players are set up to have productive 2021 seasons, which will allow dynasty managers to sell for peak value (or very close to it). Attaining appreciating asset(s) for these players will allow you to build a true dynasty. Trades where you can get younger at the position, while not sacrificing too much short-term production, are very doable (and will be even more so during the season).

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