Exploiting Value Through KTC: QB Sells

Exploiting Value Through KTC: QB Sells

Screen Shot 2021-06-12 at 4.03.20 PM.pngScreen Shot 2021-06-12 at 4.03.20 PM.png

KeepTradeCut (KTC) is a free and fantastic tool for the dynasty gamer. It is a great way to gauge how the dynasty hive mind values different players and picks. This website essentially provides “market value” for all kinds of assets, using over 900,000 data points and counting. It is important to note, however, that the market is not always correct. The best part of this crowdsourcing tool is that it allows the savvy dynasty manager to recognize and exploit weaknesses in the market. 

Checkout the other editions in the series here:

The purpose of this article is to pinpoint the quarterbacks who are currently the most overvalued by the dynasty market. If you own any of these players, understand that they are great sell candidates, and it is not ideal to acquire them at their current cost.

Note: All of the KTC values used in this article are assuming a Superflex/0.5 PPR format.  


Baker Mayfield

Current KTC Value: 5792

Current Positional Ranking: QB13

Sample Trades using KTC’s trade calculator:

Screen Shot 2021-06-12 at 11.18.58 AM.pngScreen Shot 2021-06-12 at 11.18.58 AM.png

Screen Shot 2021-06-12 at 11.19.13 AM.pngScreen Shot 2021-06-12 at 11.19.13 AM.png

Baker Mayfield is a quarterback who is being boosted by the dynasty community for reasons unrelated to his production. While it is understandable why people find Mayfield’s youth and job security attractive, it doesn’t justify his current price tag. Mayfield finished 25th in fantasy points per game in 2020 (15.8 PPG) and 26th in fantasy points per game in 2019 (14.2 PPG). It is no secret that the Browns have one of the most run-heavy offenses in the league, as Mayfield finished 29th in the league in pass attempts per game. 

Not only did Mayfield’s fantasy production suffer from a lack of volume, but he also struggled in terms of some key efficiency metrics. For example, Mayfield had a catchable pass rate of 72.8%, which ranked last amongst all eligible starting QBs last year. Mayfield also ranked 32nd last year in clean pocket completion percentage. 

For a QB that brings very little to the table in terms of rushing production, Mayfield would need to either be in a very high volume passing offense, or he would need to be elite in terms of efficiency to be a top-flight fantasy option. He is neither. Trading Mayfield for an asset like Deshaun Watson or Travis Etienne is something that I wouldn’t think twice about. 

Joe Burrow

Current KTC Value: 7,468

Current Positional Ranking: QB7

Sample Trade using KTC’s trade calculator:

Screen Shot 2021-06-12 at 4.05.46 PM.pngScreen Shot 2021-06-12 at 4.05.46 PM.png

I am not convinced Joe Burrow is a top 10 dynasty quarterback. Despite the fact that he showed flashes throughout his rookie year, Burrow still fell below expectations after setting the college football world on fire before coming into the league. 

While he did have a decent floor, finishing 80% of his games in the top 20 fantasy quarterbacks of the week (tied for 11th in this category with Ryan Tannehill), he was below average in terms of upside. Only 30% of his fantasy finishes fell within the top 10 (good for 15th amongst all QBs), and a mere 10% of his games fell within the top 5 (16th amongst QBs). 

Along those same lines, Burrow finished with 0.38 fantasy points per dropback, ranking 27th in the league. He also averaged only 5.5 red zone pass attempts per game, ranking 22nd in that category. Another concern is that the Bengals refused to address the offensive line, which was responsible for Burrow being sacked 32 times through 10 games (good for a 16 game pace of 51.5 sacks which would’ve ranked worst in the NFL).  

This is not to say Burrow is a bust, or even that he isn’t a promising young quarterback. However, I do believe that the QB7 in dynasty is generous for a quarterback who is coming off a gruesome knee injury, playing in front of one of the worst offensive lines in the league, and who was unimpressive in terms of efficiency and ceiling last year.

Why You Should Have Caution With Rookie QBs

A "Hit" Season is defined as a season within the Top 12 for the QB Position. Data compiled from 2014-2020 using MFL, DLF, and Sleeper.A "Hit" Season is defined as a season within the Top 12 for the QB Position. Data compiled from 2014-2020 using MFL, DLF, and Sleeper.

A “Hit” Season is defined as a season within the Top 12 for the QB Position. Data compiled from 2014-2020 using MFL, DLF, and Sleeper.

As you can see above, from 2014-2020, there have been 13 quarterbacks with a rookie Superflex ADP within the 1.01-1.06 range and 7 quarterbacks with an ADP within the 1.07-1.12 range. 

This year’s quarterback class produced five quarterbacks with a first-round ADP in Superflex rookie drafts:

1.01-1.06 Range:

  • Trevor Lawrence (ADP – 1.01)

    • Current KTC Value: 7,386

    • Current Positional Ranking: QB8

  • Trey Lance (ADP – 1.02)

    • Current KTC Value: 6,544

    • Current Positional Ranking: QB10

  • Justin Fields (ADP – 1.03)

    • Current KTC Value: 6,349

    • Current Positional Ranking: QB11

Looking at the 2+ hit seasons rate for the 1.01-1.06 range (36%), the numbers suggest two of Lawrence, Fields, and Lance are likely to bust. Even if this quarterback class proves to be significantly better than average, it is extremely unlikely that all three of the aforementioned quarterbacks become consistent QB1s in fantasy.

That being said, at least one of Lawrence, Lance, and Fields will almost surely see their current value dip by this time next year. So while these quarterback prospects offer extremely alluring upside, it is a bit speculative trading for them at their current price. 

If you prefer a more risk-averse dynasty strategy, it’s also not a bad idea to field offers for Lawrence, Lance, or Fields. Their current values are very close to their ceilings, as the top 6 dynasty QBs are going to be hard to displace (Mahomes, Allen, Murray, Jackson, Herbert, Prescott). Furthermore, it’s not hard to get a haul of proven talent in exchange for any of these highly-rated prospects. 

1.07-1.12 Range:

  • Zach Wilson (ADP – 1.07)

    • Current KTC Value: 5,761

    • Current Positional Ranking: QB13

  • Mac Jones (ADP – 1.12)

    • Current KTC Value: 4,761

    • Current Positional Ranking: QB20

Although the 1.07-1.12 range does have a smaller sample size than 1.01-1.06, the former actually has a better 2+ season hit rate (50%) than the latter. Thus, based on the last seven years of data, one of Wilson or Jones will likely finish in the top 12 at least once in the next several years while the other won’t. 

Considering the current price disparity between the two, I prefer Jones to Wilson. When Mac Jones inevitably takes over the starting job, he will be playing behind a top-five offensive line in football. On the other end of the spectrum, Wilson will be thrown into the fire behind a bottom-three offensive line. Both teams upgraded their passing game weapons, and there is not a significant difference in the quality of each. 

Moreover, Wilson and Jones both have similar strengths (anticipation, quick release, solid understanding of the offense); and neither are true dual-threat options. Considering the similarities and the better offensive line, Jones is an excellent buy; while Wilson is an asset that I have no problem trading away at his current value. 

%d bloggers like this: