Exploiting Value Through KTC: QB Buys

Exploiting Value Through KTC: QB Buys

KeepTradeCut (KTC) is a free and fantastic tool for the dynasty gamer. It is a great way to gauge how the dynasty hive mind values different players and picks. This website essentially provides “market value” for all kinds of assets, using over 900,000 data points and counting. It is important to note, however, that the market is not always correct. The best part of this crowdsourcing tool is that it allows the savvy dynasty manager to recognize and exploit weaknesses in the market. 

Checkout the other editions in the series here:

The purpose of this article is to pinpoint the quarterbacks who are currently the most undervalued by the dynasty market. If you own any of these players, understand that they are perfect hold candidates and that you will likely not get what they are worth if you try to trade them away. On the other hand, they are great players to buy.

Note: All of the KTC values used in this article are assuming a Superflex/0.5 PPR format.  

Dynasty Buys

Ryan Tannehill 

Current KTC Value: 5432

Current Positional Ranking: QB18

Sample Trade using KTC’s trade calculator:

Although Tannehill generally isn’t mentioned in the elite QB conversation, he was second in fantasy points per drop back in 2020 and has been extremely efficient since he arrived in Tennessee. He also ranked top 12 in “% top 20 weekly finishes,” “% top 10 weekly finishes,” and “% top 5 weekly finishes,” demonstrating a solid floor and ceiling on a week to week basis. Combined with rushing production, seven rushing touchdowns in 2020, and four in 2019, Tannehill has a solid floor with upside. 

Tannehill is also only 32, the same age as Russell Wilson, and has three years left on his contract in Tennessee. It is hard to find any reason why he is ranked so low by the dynasty community, other than the fact that he lost his second and third favorite pass catchers (Corey Davis and Jonnu Smith) in free agency. 

The Titans did not leave these holes completely unaddressed, however, as they signed Josh Reynolds and drafted Dez Fitzpatrick. Both of these receivers have the potential to serve as nice complementary options. Also, Anthony Firkser showed last year that he will be a more than capable starting TE. 

Most importantly, it has been reported that Julio Jones to the Titans is going to get done within the coming days. AJ Brown and Julio Jones will immediately become one of the most unstoppable receiving corps in the NFL, and no one will benefit more than the undervalued Ryan Tannehill. If you can buy Tannehill before the news officially breaks, it might be your last chance to get him at a reasonable cost. 

Derek Carr

Current KTC Value: 3949

Current Positional Ranking: QB28

Sample Trade using KTC’s trade calculator:

Say it with me. Derek Carr is a good quarterback. Not only is he an above-average real-life starting quarterback, but he is also an incredibly dependable high-end QB2 in fantasy football. Carr finished with 30 total touchdowns, only 9 interceptions, and over 4,000 yards passing in 2020. He also ranked top 12 in “% top 10 weekly finishes” and “% top 5 weekly finishes” demonstrating some nice upside for a QB2. 

Additionally, Carr was 7th in red zone pass attempts per game, tied with Mahomes at 5.4. If second year receivers Bryan Edwards and Henry Ruggs can take a step forward in their development, Carr should be in line for another strong year next season.

There is simply too much of a disparity between Carr’s fantasy production and his current dynasty value. There are few quarterbacks that you can confidently plug into your starting lineups that come so cheap. Giving up a short term asset like Myles Gaskin for a quarterback of Carr’s caliber is an easy move in Superflex formats, and I encourage you to inquire about Carr if you are in need of QB help. 

Jimmy Garoppolo 

Current KTC Value: 2,629

Current Positional Ranking: QB33

Sample Trade using KTC’s trade calculator:

No, I have not been living under a rock the last three months. Yes, I am aware that the 49ers traded up for their QB of the future in Trey Lance.

While Jimmy G is assuredly not the long term starter in San Francisco, it would be shocking if he wasn’t the starter for most of, or all of the 2021 season. Lance is a very talented player, but he only played a total of 17 games in his entire college career, and one exhibition game last year. Lance may have mouth-watering long term upside, but he is still a very raw prospect that needs time to learn Kyle Shanahan’s complex offense and adapt to the pro game. 

On the other hand, Jimmy G has a career win-loss record of 24-8, and undeniably has a giant chip on his shoulder after the 49ers drafted his inevitable replacement. He was the fantasy QB14 in 2019, and has a significantly improved supporting cast for 2021. Garoppolo will likely never be a fantasy asset that single handedly wins you weeks, however, it isn’t hard to imagine him playing very well in 2021 and getting a starting job elsewhere next year. 

The best part of acquiring Garoppolo is that he is currently dirt cheap. Chuba Hubbard or equivalent value can get you a starting quarterback in superflex formats with the very realistic possibility of being a starter beyond 2021 as well. Take it and run. 

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