Exploiting Value Through KTC: WR Sells

Exploiting Value Through KTC: WR Sells

KeepTradeCut (KTC) is a free and fantastic tool for the dynasty gamer. It is a great way to gauge how the dynasty hive mind values different players and picks. This website essentially provides “market value” for all kinds of assets, using over 900,000 data points and counting. It is important to note, however, that the market is not always correct. The best part of this crowdsourcing tool is that it allows the savvy dynasty manager to recognize and exploit weaknesses in the market. 

Checkout the other editions in the series here:

The purpose of this article is to pinpoint the wide receivers which are currently the most overvalued by the dynasty market. It is more likely than not that at least one manager in your league over-values each of these three players. It is highly recommended that you cash in as soon as possible for an optimal return. Moreover, these players are not worth trading for at their current price.

Note: All of the KTC values used in this article are assuming a Superflex/0.5 PPR format.  

Dynasty Sells

D.J. Moore

KTC Live Value: 6,057

Current Positional Ranking: WR13

Sample Trade using KTC Trade Calculator:

D.J. Moore is a talented young receiver; there is no denying that. However, he is currently overvalued by dynasty managers as the consensus WR13 on KTC. He simply should not be ranked ahead of guys like Michael Thomas, Allen Robinson, or Keenan Allen. All of the players listed have proven that they can be fantasy WR1s, not only over the course of a season but week-in and week-out.

When it comes to D.J. Moore, dynasty managers are falling in love with unrealized potential and youth. It is only a matter of time, however, until people realize that Moore is a career WR2 rather than a WR1. Why aren’t I sold on his eventual ascension, you might ask?

First, Moore has only scored a total of 10 touchdowns over his three-year career. Further, he ranked 58th in the league last year in red-zone targets at the WR position. This lack of red-zone usage puts a big-time cap on his ceiling. Second, according to playerprofiler, Moore ranked 94th in true catch rate (% of catchable targets caught) and was second in the NFL in drops with 10. 

Considering the fact that Moore can fetch Jarvis Landry and the 1.10 (currently DeVonta Smith or Javonte Williams), he is an easy sell. Landry will likely produce at a very comparable rate to Moore, and you can get one of the better prospects in this year’s draft on top of him. 

**For more on why DJ Moore is currently a dynasty sell, check out my colleague Britt Sanders’ article on him here.**

Ja’Marr Chase

KTC Live Value: 6,817

Current Positional Ranking: WR5

Sample Trade using KTC Trade Calculator:

As much as it pains me to include Ja’Marr Chase on this list, his current consensus value of the dynasty WR5 left me no choice. In order for Chase to maintain this lofty status, he would need to have a flawless rookie season. Is that entirely out of the realm of possibility? No. Is it likely? No. 

Corey Coleman, Josh Doctson, Kevin White, and Jordan Matthews all had a rookie draft ADP between 1.01-1.06 in SF formats. Sammy Watkins was considered a generational talent when he came out of school as well. Chase is an incredible WR prospect, but he has not played a snap in the NFL. The fact of the matter is, we have no idea how a player’s talents will translate from college to the NFL until we see it with our own eyes. 

Reconnecting with Joe Burrow seems ideal, but the offense has target competition. While the “too many mouths to feed” narrative is one that is often overstated, we don’t have any way of knowing how target shares will be distributed between Higgins, Boyd, and Chase. Lastly, Cincinnati’s offensive line is worrisome, to say the least. Burrow likely won’t have much time to throw and could easily be re-injured. 

Trading Chase for Diggs + a throw-in (early third or equivalent value) is a no-brainer. Even if you don’t want to trade away Chase, acquiring him at his current price is not recommended. 

Laviska Shenault

KTC Live Value: 4,445

Current Positional Ranking: WR35
Sample Trades using KTC Trade Calculator:

Laviska Shenault’s role on the 2021 Jaguars’ Offense is currently in question. His value rose considerably when it became clear that the Jags would be landing Trevor Lawrence. Nevertheless, the arrival of Urban Meyer, Marvin Jones, and Travis Etienne has added many more question marks to Shenault’s outlook. 

For one thing, Travis Etienne has reportedly been taking most of his snaps at WR in OTA’s. Although I don’t buy that he will predominantly be used as a WR, it looks increasingly likely that he will be taking a considerable amount of snaps lined up in the slot. What’s more, Marvin Jones and DJ Chark will likely be taking the vast majority of snaps lined up out wide. While Shenault could still be used in a significant role in the offense, that possibility is looking slimmer than it did at the end of the season last year. 

On top of these concerning developments, Shenault has a notable injury history. In college, he missed five games as a freshman, three as a sophomore, and one as a senior due to injury. In his first year as a Jaguar, he missed two games and was limited in several others due to a hamstring injury. 

All things considered, Shenault should be valued much closer to his fellow second-year wide receivers Michael Pittman (40) and Jalen Reagor (54) than he currently is. 

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