Exploiting Value Through KTC: WR Buys

Exploiting Value Through KTC: WR Buys

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KeepTradeCut (KTC) is a free and fantastic tool for the dynasty gamer. It is a great way to gauge how the dynasty hivemind values different players and picks. This website essentially provides “market value” for all kinds of assets, using over 900,000 data points and counting. It is important to note, however, that the market is not always correct. The best part of this crowdsourcing tool is that it allows the savvy dynasty manager to recognize and exploit weaknesses in the market. 

Checkout the other editions in the series here:

The purpose of this article is to pinpoint the wide receivers which are currently the most undervalued by the dynasty market. If you own any of these players, understand that they are excellent hold candidates and that you will likely not get what they are worth if you try to trade them away. 

Note: All of the KTC values used in this article are assuming a Superflex/0.5 PPR format.  

Dynasty Buys

Keenan Allen

Current KTC Value: 5,446

Current Positional Ranking: WR20

Sample Trade using KTC’s trade calculator:

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Although the dynasty WR20 is not an exceptionally low ranking for a 29-year-old wide receiver, Keenan Allen is the same age as De’Andre Hopkins, and scored 0.6 fewer points per game than Hopkins did last year. From the minute Justin Herbert took over as the starter, he absolutely peppered Allen with targets, as Allen ranked sixth in HOG rate (targets per snap) and proved to be a PPR monster with the fifth-most receptions in the league over that stretch. 

Why then is Hopkins (WR10) ranked ten spots ahead of Allen by the dynasty community? Both have elite young quarterbacks, both are tied to their team long-term, and both have a style of play that will likely age well. If you’re looking to contend within the next 2-3 year window, Allen is an underrated commodity you can depend on for solid WR1 production. Contenders should have no problem trading a young but unproven asset like Jerry Jeudy away for Allen.

Jarvis Landry

Current KTC Value: 3,193

Current Positional Ranking: WR58

Sample Trade using KTC’s trade calculator:

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Jarvis Landry is hands down one of the most disrespected players in dynasty fantasy football. The man played through a fractured sacrum as well as a broken rib throughout 2020 and still finished with over 800 yards and four total touchdowns. Despite the fact that the Browns are a run-heavy offense, Baker Mayfield should be able to take a considerable step forward in 2021 with both Landry and OBJ healthy and having a year under their belt in Stefanski’s offense. 

Landry should provide mid to low-end WR2 value in 2021, likely scoring somewhere between 13-15 points per game. Landry is still only 28 years old and has already finished as a top 24 receiver in five of his seven seasons as a pro.

Landry being ranked as the 58th best WR in dynasty is laughable. Trade away a late 2nd rounder for him and laugh all the way to the bank. As you can see by clicking on the following link, picks in the 2.07-2.12 range have a paltry 6% 2+ hit season rate over the last 7 years. Trading away a 6% chance at replacement production for Landry is something any intelligent dynasty owner should absolutely jump at.

Jalen Reagor

Current KTC Value: 3,338

Current Positional Ranking: WR55

Sample Trade using KTC’s trade calculator:

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Jalen Reagor is being written off by the dynasty hivemind far too quickly. First of all, Reagor played through a series of injuries in 2020, one of which was expected to keep him out far longer than it did. Reagor suffered a torn labrum before the season even started but played through it. He then tore his UCL in week two and had to get thumb surgery, missing weeks 3-7. 

Reagor will have a full offseason to learn the offense and work with Hurts. Rookie DeVonta Smith will likely draw the opposing team’s top cornerback on a weekly basis, giving Reagor easier defensive matchups. Most importantly, however, Reagor will be moving to the slot in his second year as a pro. This new role should enable him to put his impressive burst and YAC ability to use while drawing plenty of short and intermediate targets from Hurts. 

Expect a considerable year two jump for Reagor, which will make him much more expensive than he currently is this time next year. Henry Ruggs, on the other hand, is someone who should not be expected to make such a jump. Trading away Ruggs for Reagor (or a similar deal) should be a no-brainer.

Stay tuned for the WR Sells version of this article series that will be dropping soon! 

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