Ever have a tweet that gets so much traction you are inspired to write an article?
How close is D.J. Moore to Joe Mixon?
Joe Mixon is seemingly always tabbed as the next running back to break into the top-5 even though he has yet to ever reach the top-5 any given year. Whether it be injury, offensive line play, or poor offense in general, something is alway inhibiting Mixon from actualizing his top-5 potential. Mixon has accumulated RB: 49, 13, 10, 34 finishes in four seasons played.
D.J. Moore is now entering year three of being tabbed as the next wide receiver to break into the top-5 dynasty echelon. Just like Mixon, he has yet to hit close to those claims. Logging WR: 23,16, 39 in his three seasons played.
Before you rage close this article I want to acknowledge a few things: yes the wide receiver position requires time to show the players actual NFL talent, especially compared to running backs. That is literally the main reason why drafting top running backs ahead of top wide receivers in rookie drafts is the most effective strategy. It is the quickest return on the value you acquired them at. I also acknowledge that D.J. Moore has done more in his three years that is historically significant than Mixon has done in his four.
However, this is to put your expectations into perspective and to allow for some retrospection about the looming ‘what if’.
First, I am going to let some of my wonderful followers highlight why D.J. Moore is not on the same trajectory as Mixon seems to be.
Next, I am going to highlight arguments that were made in D.J. Moore’s favor that actually highlight the original tweet
How can D.J. Moore actualize his Top-5 potential?
It is insincere not to acknowledge the upside of D.J. Moore and not take into account his future outlook. Unfortunately, it is also the very thing that plagues his manager’s vision. The term rose colored glasses applies rightfully so to most managers, especially when they have a player who has the ceiling that Moore does. Moore benefits from being a consistent contributor in receiving production for the Panthers: he hit 1,200 yards in 2020 with an entirely new role on that offense. His touchdown percentage amongst the team is still sitting at a high percentage, Josh Larky broke down D.J. Moore and why he is still obtaining elite upside on his codebreakers pod found here. The biggest detractor from Moore is outside of his control. That being his quarterback play. Something I alluded to earlier, D.J. Moore has received passes from: Kyle Allen, Teddy Bridgewater and a broken, aging, Cam Newton. Despite all of that he has been able to produce some stunning numbers attained by few at his young age. From an efficiency standpoint he has produced a yards per team pass attempt average of 1.8 yards which is considered good. He has seen a consistent growth of efficiency in that metric as well, starting at 1.39, then reaching 1.85 in 2019 and finally ending 2020 at 2.16.
This article is not intended to sway you off of D.J. Moore just to highlight the risk that still exists with Moore and projecting him as a Top-5 dynasty wide receiver asset. It is my belief that D.J. Moore will always be flirting as a Top-5 dynasty wide receiver, but never actualize that reality. I view D.J. Moore in the range of dynasty wide receiver 7-11. My best career average projection is that he will average wide receiver 11 from a seasonal standpoint. It is my unfortunate belief that, D.J. Moore is the wide receiver version of Joe Mixon; a high end wide recever two with wide recever one upside.