Let’s go to Hollywood?

Let’s go to Hollywood?


    Hollywood is the larger-than-life symbol of the entertainment world, so let’s talk about how I think Marquise “Hollywood” Brown can be that larger than life symbol for the Baltimore Ravens.  Hollywood was the 25th overall pick a couple years ago.  Camp reports this year talked routinely about how he was destroying Marcus Peters like the cast of The Expendables.  One of the knocks on him was his inability to catch the ball in traffic, which was specifically addressed in the August 17th practice report when he caught several balls while in traffic.


One of my misconceptions on Hollywood coming out of the draft was that he was primarily a speed guy.  Below is an analysis of his routes run in 2019 via Matt Harmon’s Reception Perception:

    • 17% – 9 route

    • 17% – Corner/Post

    • 15% – Dig/Out

    • 20% – Curl/Comeback

    • 18% – Slant

    • 10% – Screen/Flat

Note:  He was above league average in success at EVERY route other than the comeback.

Not only was he running and winning at virtually every route, but Lamar’s 2019 passer rating when targeting him was 123.2 which was good for #11 amongst qualified WR and accounted for a 19% target share as a ROOKIE!  That has since dropped to 93.6 in 2020 which is good for 70th out of qualified receivers.  I expect that to normalize a little once Lamar figures it out.  When the game matters (look at the game against Philly), he was the focal point with the most catches.  Another example of his importance, in their post season game last year against the Titans, he was targeted 11 times for 7 catches and 126 yards. 

    Now a look at this year.  He is at #50 among WR in fantasy points per game.  Here is the case to buy low if possible.  (Stats via: Playerprofiler.com)

    • #1 WR in Route Participation

    • #6 in Air yards share

    • #4 in Deep targets

    • #17 in target share

    • #17 in target separation

The reason he is not putting up the elite numbers we hoped in 2020 can be attributed directly to his catchable target rate which is at 71% (good for #81 among WR).  The bet has transformed.  You’re no longer hoping Hollywood has the talent or opportunity, you’re gambling on Lamar’s ability to use it.  If you ask me, that’s a bet I’m willing to take.

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