The Siren is a mythological creature, cursed into the form of a beautiful bird and banished to an island where they sing a sweet melody that draws unwary sailors to their death. They are only able to perish and break their curse if some brave soul could pass their island without succumbing to their song. The stories portray these beings as evil, painting a picture of a sea floor littered with sunken ships; however, the songs they sing are rooted in avenging the wrong doings done against them. Today let me be that siren for your dynasty football team.
When it comes to dynasty future rookie picks oscillate in value. Ranging from a cheap throw in or add-on to a trade, to a most prized possession depending on the fantasy football manger that owns sed future draft pick. In the past, present, and future seasons these values will continue to fluctuate. In years prior the only worry of losing a player was to injury, a fate that fell upon many players throughout the season. However, there have been multiple processes and algorithms to determine a player’s injury risk and opportunity allowing a fantasy football manager to navigate, and mitigate, the risk they were willing to take on. No season being more unpredictable than the 2020 season, which sees the NFL as well as the world, adjusting to a pandemic the likes of which we haven’t seen since the Spanish Flu in 1918. Its important to note that 1918 season. In 1918 the college football season was delayed until October and November with at least 18 teams opting to have no season at all. Now in 2020, with the NFL draft combine and scouting assessment changes, the lack of a college season will certainly make it more difficult to evaluate the talent entering the NFL in 2021 as well as beyond. In any given week you can have any player be out for two to three weeks, placed in the COVID-19 protocols until multiple negative tests can be processed. As we know, with a 16 week season, losing two starters for multiple weeks can be enough to sink your dreams at a title run, much like the ships of those poor souls who gravitated towards a sirens song. The best teams in dynasty this year won’t be the team with the most stars or best breakouts; no, it will be the team with the best depth (and a little luck).
Now comes my siren song. You need to take extra precautions when trading for a future pick. Projecting future draft picks is an entirely underrated aspect of trading, and usually can be done with a relative accuracy. A team projected to have a rookie draft pick in the first four is entirely more valuable than a draft pick in the last four. For my visual learners, rookie pick #4 is either Deandre Swift or Jerry Jeudy rookie pick #12 is Brandon Aiyuk or Tee Higgins (per fantasydata.com). It doesn’t take a genius to see which pick you’d rather have.
When I say take precautions when trading for future draft picks, this is something everyone clearly does. However, with the pandemic as outlined above, the usual teams are not the only ones to have a shot at a title this year. A team that you project to be a bottom five team may have some of the best depth in the league and utilize that to leverage their team and hoist the trophy. Now, don’t hear what I am not saying, keep your 2021 draft picks. If an owner is panicking swoop in to offer them with a calm mind an offer that will bolster your rookie selection. If you are that owner that is panicking, hold tight and stay tuned, we will take care of you come draft season.
In summary, when you are trading for a rookie draft pick don’t look at the team’s projection, make the automatic assumption that they are going to be drafting as champions. All 2021 picks have increased value due to the nature of the beast that is projecting out the 2020 NFL season. If there is any year where the phrase “any given Sunday” applies it is most definitely the year of 2020. The Sirens are singing, will you be the one to succumb to their temptations, or will you sail on by and banish these creatures, ending their torment (and your own)? Your fate, as well as that of your dynasty franchise, is in your hands.